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A cascade of US tariffs announced by President Donald Trump will hurt Chinese steel exports and help to drag iron ore prices below $90 a ton by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs Group said in a note.

Washington’s “reciprocal” levies will hit shipments to top destinations including Vietnam, which has been battered by higher-than-expected duties and will see its own overseas sales crimped as global growth cools, analysts including Aurelia Waltham wrote.

Iron ore has traded in a narrow range from around $100 to $105 a ton over the past month, as the market weighs high Chinese mill utilization rates, impending crude steel production cuts and a likely drop in exports.

Writing after a visit to six private steel mills in China, the analysts said prices would have near-term support, but added the market was likely to go into surplus in the second half and could touch $84 a ton. Goldman expects steel exports will fall by around 15% in 2025, with the surveyed mills expecting domestic demand to decline by as much as 5%.

China’s state-owned iron ore buyer, China Mineral Resources Group, also appears to be helping to reduce volatility in the market. It “appears to be holding a rather sizable inventory at ports — 10-20 million tons — and is selling stock in the onshore market when the market is tight,” the analysts wrote.

Iron ore futures in Singapore were 0.7% lower at $101.15 dollars a ton at 10:52 a.m. local time, declining over 1% from last week. Chinese markets were closed today for a public holiday.

(By Katharine Gemmell)