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North America’s aluminum industry and buyers are scrambling to figure out how business will be affected after US President Donald Trump imposed import duties on Canadian and Mexican supplies.

A key uncertainty is whether raw aluminum and related products incur a 25% tariff or if they get a more favorable 10% treatment for being a critical mineral. The US Commerce Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

“No one knows,” Anton Posner, chief executive officer of logistics services provider Mercury Resources, said in a phone interview. “We’re dealing with government administration and trade negations by Truth Social, and therefore how can anyone strategize, plan or effectively react?”

Raw aluminum imports would be subject to a 10% tariff if the administration goes by the US Geological Survey’s designation of the metal as one of 50 minerals critical to the economy and national security. The president’s executive order states that “critical minerals” are subject to a 10% duty. But that clashes with Trump’s announcement in recent weeks of a 25% levy on all raw aluminum and products, without reference to critical-mineral status.

Canada accounts for 58% of all US aluminum imports, while Mexico is the source of a fraction of that, government figures showed.

In Quebec, North America’s most significant aluminum-producing region, Premier Francois Legault suggested Tuesday that “it seems that aluminum could be included in the critical minerals” category.

Rio Tinto Group and Alcoa Corp., which both have operations in the French-speaking province, have yet to publicly say what rate their customers would pay.

(By Joe Deaux)

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