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When the United States inked a high-profile deal with Ukraine last month to secure access to the war-torn country’s vast trove of critical minerals, the announcement was heralded as a strategic masterstroke.

For Washington, it’s a geopolitical win — a hedge against China’s dominance in rare earths and a gesture of long-term commitment to Kyiv. For Ukraine, it promised to turn its untapped underground wealth into post-war recovery fuel.

But beneath the optimism lies a reality shaped by Soviet-era infrastructure, ambiguous geology and a conflict that still rages in parts of the east. The US-Ukraine mineral cooperation agreement may be bold in vision — but its execution is already proving to be a bureaucratic and logistical quagmire.

A resource-rich but undermapped nation

Ukraine’s subsoil is loaded with strategic resources: lithium, titanium, rare earths, cobalt, graphite — elements critical to electric vehicles, energy storage and defense technologies. By state estimates, it holds one of the largest lithium reserves on the continent, and around 20% of the world’s graphite resources.

However, many of the country’s geological maps date back to the Soviet 1970s and 1980s, handwritten in Cyrillic and lacking modern geospatial clarity.

“You’re looking at hundreds of high-potential zones,” says a US Department of Energy official, “but we don’t yet know exactly what’s there, or how to get it out.”

Western investors are also wary. Despite high-level backing, few private companies are willing to take first-mover risk in an active war zone with legal ambiguities around land ownership, permitting, and royalties.

From battlefield to boardroom

As part of its agreement with Ukraine, the US is expected to provide technical support for the region’s minerals surveying and exploration. But analysts say it may take 3–5 years just to modernize Ukraine’s geological database — and that assumes the conflict doesn’t escalate.

Meanwhile, China remains the dominant player globally, refining more than 60% of the world’s lithium and 80% of rare earth elements.

Investors waiting for clarity

Oleksiy Sobolev, Ukraine’s first deputy economy minister, said in January that the government was working on deals with Western allies to unlock its critical materials, eyeing total investments of about $12–15 billion by 2033.

Companies like Westinghouse, Albemarle, and Lynas have reportedly expressed interest in partnerships, but none have made firm commitments.

“Everyone’s watching to see if Ukraine can clean up its mining laws, establish a security perimeter, and offer real protection for assets,” said one Canadian executive involved in early-stage talks. “Until then, it’s just noise.”

A glimpse of the future

If Ukraine can overcome the hurdles, the payoff could be enormous.

According to a recent European Bank for Reconstruction and Development study, the country could generate over $10 billion annually in mineral exports by 2035. That would not only rebuild infrastructure but position Ukraine as Europe’s leading critical minerals hub.

For now, though, it’s a waiting game — with history, politics, and geology all complicating a mineral future that’s tantalizingly close but frustratingly out of reach.

* This article was written with the support of AI and reviewed by MINING.com editors