Cobalt demand to outpace supply by early 2030s, says Cobalt Institute

Staff Writer | May 14, 2025 | 11:25 am Battery Metals Markets Africa Asia Cobalt

Image: CMOC

Global cobalt demand is projected to rise faster than supply over the next decade, shrinking the current market surplus and potentially pushing the sector into deficit by the early 2030s, according to by the Cobalt Institute.

Demand is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, reaching 400,000 tonnes in the early 2030s, up from 222,000 tonnes in 2024.

The surge, the Institute says, is expected to be largely driven by the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) market.

EVs to dominate cobalt consumption

In 2024, cobalt demand exceeded 200,000 tonnes for the first time, with battery applications accounting for 76% of total demand and 94% of demand growth.

EVs alone represented 43% of total consumption, a share expected to grow to 57% by 2030. Other sectors — including mobile phones, laptops, superalloys and industrial applications — are forecast to see more moderate growth.

The portable electronics segment, the second-largest demand source, rebounded in 2024 with 12% year-over-year growth after several sluggish years. Demand from AI applications is also rising, driven by larger battery sizes required for higher computational loads.

On the industrial side, defence spending has lifted demand for cobalt-based superalloys, particularly in military and aerospace sectors.

DRC tighten grip on supply

Supply continues to be dominated by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which accounted for 76% of mined cobalt output in 2024. Major producer CMOC reported record-high production of 114,000 tonnes from its Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu projects — both exceeding guidance by 31%.

Indonesia, currently holding a 12% market share, is projected to nearly double its share to 22% by 2030, according to the report. Meanwhile, the DRC is expected to maintain a 65% share by the end of the decade.

Despite growing demand, cobalt prices hit a nine-year low in early 2024, driven by persistent oversupply. Cobalt hydroxide (CIF Asia) and cobalt metal (EXW Europe) prices fell 15% and 22%, respectively, over the year.

To address the glut, the DRC implemented a four-month export ban in early 2024.

With the ban set to expire soon, the government has signaled it may impose stricter export controls to stabilize the market. Since the February ban, cobalt prices have rebounded by 60%, reaching $16/lb.