Thanks for your comment Jonathan
1. They have not yet officially achieved that range, but my guess is that Tesla would not opt for LFP if it meant customers won’t qualify for a subsidy which would cancel out savings with the cheaper battery. Tesla cut the price of the Model 3 in China in January but it’s still $46,000+. I wouldn’t buy a car at that price that only goes 250km but that’s Tesla and CATL’s read of the Chinese market.
2. That may be so but I doubt firms like CATL and Tesla would enter into an agreement of this size only to abandon the project. If that where to happen, and it’s not impossible, it would certainly cement the position of NCM and NCA.
3. Of all the major EV makers Tesla is the least exposed to the cobalt price as the NCA cathodes they have developed, as claimed by Musk, already uses less cobalt than NCM 811. They’d be doing BMW, VW et al a favour by driving down the Co price.
4. According to data from Adamas Intelligence which tracks the battery chemistry of EVs sold around the world. based on the lithium deployment 811 chemistries (10%) used grew 370% y/y in Dec 2019 and have now surpassed NCM111 (30% Co). It’s been slow for the very reasons you mention but the market is moving in the direction of low cobalt cathodes
Frik