Copper is the major听metal听辫补谤听别虫肠别濒濒别苍肠别听in terms of electrical conductivity but is not the only solution to energy听transmission.听
The red metal price is flying high and with the energy transition set to pick up the baton when rampant recovery-induced demand loses steam, there seems to be no end in sight.
While听aluminum鈥檚听conductivity is some 40% below that of copper it does possess attractive properties听鈥�听not least its density, which is just 30% of that of听copper.鈥�
This means that an听aluminum听cable is around 52% of the weight of a copper cable with the same conductivity, a property offering handling, and installation benefits.听听
鈥淭oo many forecasts ignore the fact that听aluminum听is a serious competitor to copper in a number of听high volume听applications, including high- and mid-voltage power cable, busbars, transformer windings and motor windings,鈥� says Julian Kettle, Wood Mackenzie Senior Vice President, Vice-Chair Metals and Mining.
鈥淚n fact, given its lower听cost,听aluminum听wins听out against copper under virtually any听realistic听long-term price scenario. Only at extreme carbon tax levels does听aluminum鈥檚听higher carbon tax footprint at the margin lead to copper becoming competitive at price levels that historically would have been prohibitive鈥�
According to Kettle, even if听forecasts of听$15,000-$20,000听per听tonne for copper prove prescient, without commensurate听aluminum听prices of听$5,000-7,000 per听tonne听copper would听see听massive听demand听destruction, which would be accompanied after some time lag by supply growth.
Furthermore, prices getting anywhere near these levels would send a strong signal to the market that the industry cannot meet the challenge of the energy transition, with the result that alternatives would be sought.听