The global copper market is expected to see a significant surplus over the next two years as the negative impacts of US tariffs on demand outweigh supply growth, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest forecast.
The Group, which recently concluded its biannual meeting with key industry players in Lisbon, forecasts global copper surplus to reach 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 138,000 tonnes from last year. This forecast also represents a larger surplus than its earlier projection of 194,000 tonnes.
In 2026, the surplus is expected to remain high at 209,000 tonnes, extending the surplus for a third straight year after a largely balanced market in 2023.
The widening surplus over the 2025-26 period, according to ICSG, can be largely attributed to higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity.
Mine supply growth
For 2025, the Group expects global mine production to increase by 2.3% to 23.5 million tonnes, benefiting mainly from the ramp-up of the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine in Russia.
In 2026, a higher growth of 2.5% is anticipated, supported by the continued ramp-up of new/expanded capacity (including China), an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output, and a recovery in Indonesia from expected declines in 2025.
In both years, ICSG said a series of smaller expansions and the start-up of a number of small and medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production notably in the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola and Morocco.
Higher refining capacity
The ICSG also sees expanded Chinese smelting capacity, as well as the start-up of new refineries in India, Indonesia and DRC, to contribute to a 2.9% increase in refined copper output this year.
In 2026, however, total refined production is expected to decline by 1.5%, due to constrained availability of copper concentrates leading to a slowdown in primary refined production. This will be offset partially continued growth in the secondary processing sector, which generates refined copper from scrap.
Demand impact
According to the ICSG, uncertainty surrounding international trade policy is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, dragging this year鈥檚 refined copper usage down to 2.4% compared to its previous forecast of 2.7% and the 2.8% recorded in 2024.
Copper usage growth is expected to slow further to 1.8% in 2026, largely reflecting an anticipated loss of momentum in China, where copper usage is expected to shrink from 2% this year to just 0.8% next year.
Demand in other key copper regions such as Europe, Japan and the US is also expected to remain 鈥渟ubdued鈥�, leaving the Asia region as the lone key driver of demand.
However, ICSG also acknowledged that demand drivers such as energy transition technology and data centers will continue to support copper usage, helping to offset some of the broader manufacturing hit from a prolonged trade war.
The full ICSG report .