Escaping the big blow off
Early indications are that Obama’s job speech last night failed to impress. Europe is down, or聽essentially flat. Gold is rallying聽for a second straight day.
Hey, why are聽investors suddenly so聽hard to impress? I know, I know, we’re all headed for the financial abyss and yadda yadda … but can’t we just pretend to get聽a little excited about a $488B stimulous package? Jeeze…
Anyway I聽don’t believe we all聽sneeze whenever聽the U.S. catches a cold,聽or however that little ditty goes. At least not聽all of us. It’s a typically North America-centric聽view, shared no doubt by Europeans, but nevertheless based on an overinflated view of our own importance and a rather narrow world view to boot.
Yes, there is such a thing as contagion. But there is also such a thing as 诲别肠辞耻辫濒颈苍驳.听
Believe me, as quickly as the markets and currencies and economies of the world united in the interest of globalization, they can just as quickly unravel. Faster in fact, when money is at stake.
The issue of how interdependent we all are — or aren’t — is not purely a聽matter of tangibility; for example Chinese production being dependent on U.S. consumers and vice versa, or a coffee picker’s fate in Colombia being determined by whether or not the British brokers in the City can afford聽one or two聽non-fat lattes per day at Starbucks.
Sure, it麓s聽tangible聽if you live and pay a mortgage in Canada or the United States or the U.K., or work in a factory in Beijing or grade聽coffee beans in Periera.聽But for an investor, it’s merely academic. You can always take your money somewhere else.
Investors need to聽ditch the idea that Europe and the United States comprise the entire world, because they don’t. Nor are we obligated to participate financially in the capital markets of certain聽nation states if we find better opportunities elsewhere. And those opportunities do exist and will continue to exist, no matter what happens.
My point is merely that you the investor should be fully engaged in doing just that — looking elsewhere for capital gains, wealth preservation, and income, over the short and聽medium term.聽Not staring at your feet, not wringing your hands over last week’s job figures, not wandering around wearing the 2,000 yard stare.聽As one of my favourite newsletter writers says, ‘There’s always a bull market somewhere…’
But where to look?
In recent editions I’ve mentioned a few companies in South America that trade in the U.S., including two I know intimately well — state oil producer EcoPetrol of Colombia and Chilean national power utility Endesa S.A.聽Though they’re both buy and hold stocks, I have issues with each over the short term.
EcoPetrol, as聽the partially owned state oil producer, may find itself on the hook for repairs to the towns and villages ravaged by last year’s聽unseasonal rains, estimated by some to be in the realm of $5 billion. For its part, Endesa — which delivers power to the world’s largest copper mines in the north —聽is聽heavily exposed to oil prices due to its reliance on thermal energy.
Endesa’s earnings and聽stock price have declined over recent quarters, even though it聽has the green light for the $3.2 billion聽hidroaysen project in the聽southern watershed which will eventually deliver 2.7 Mw of power over the world’s longest transmission line. Completion is still some years away, and public opinion is solidly against it.
Both those companies trade through American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on New York. ADRs聽are priced relative to the value of聽the domestic shares, and their ratio.聽For example, Endesa Chile ADRs trade just shy of $50, based on one ADR for every 30聽Chilean shares, each priced聽at $768 Chilean Pesos. That’s聽about a buck and a half.
In keeping with my earlier theme of ‘decoupling’ though, I’m聽inclined to聽buy deals which trade exclusively on their domestic exchanges, for a couple of reasons. One, your stock might escape the downdraft in the event of a聽blow-off to the downside occuring elsewhere in the world. Two, you get a bit of a hedge on the conversion side because peso denominated shares聽will ultimately buy more dollars if the dollar debasement trend continues.
One deal I like that trades exclusively on the Chilean exchange, or bolsa, is聽Empresa El茅ctrica Pehuenche S.A.聽This company聽controls three hydroelectric projects in Chile’s 7th Region, plus a 220 kV transmission line that connects its聽Pehuenche plant to the Ancoa substation, and into the Central Grid (SIC), and later delivery to customers. It also has another 220 kV line between the Loma Alta and Pehuenche plants. The real money within the Endesa group of companies is on the power generation side, and Pehuenche has all聽that,聽plus the distribution side of it.
Getting exposure to this and other deals in South America is not as complex as it seems. In fact all you really need is a local bank account.聽 Even聽broker buying may be聽optional. During a public issue by EcoPetrol in Colombia last year, shares in the giant oil producer were available for purchase from聽the local Exito, which is a popular supermarket chain.聽 It’s how things聽should be in my view.
Who needs to by through a registered this from a licenced 迟丑补迟听anyway? We’re just asking to buy a few shares in a national company.
That’s not too much to ask is it?聽 … KB
{{ commodity.name }}
{{ post.title }}
{{ post.date }}
Comments