A proposed article in Chile鈥檚 new constitution, currently being written by a coalition elected by popular vote, has some analysts and investors on guard as it would require the state to get consent from indigenous groups to approve any projects that may affect their rights.
The clause, , above the required two-third majority, still needs to be approved by a 鈥渉armonization鈥� committee in charge of ensuring that there are no conflicting articles in the final text.聽
The article could not only run into technical difficulties around compiling an inventory of native territories, but it could also set time limits on concessions already granted.
BTG analyst Cesar Perez-Novoa believes the article lacks details and could lead to a legal 鈥渜uagmire鈥�, he wrote on Wednesday. It doesn鈥檛 indicate what would be the timelines for any consultation, which indigenous bodies will decide, what majority will be required or what role the state will play, he noted.
鈥淎warding such large powers when there are already consultation rules in place could significantly hinder investment,鈥� Perez-Novoa wrote.聽
Although amended during the last decades, the previous version of Chile鈥檚 constitution was widely unpopular and viewed as a source of social inequality.
Mining has historically been one of the country鈥檚 most important economic sectors, with copper representing the lion鈥檚 share of the sector鈥檚 contribution to gross domestic product. The country also hosts the world鈥檚 largest known lithium reserves.
Any major changes affecting the sector could dramatically impact the supply of minerals that are critical for the world鈥檚 industrialization and energy transition, FTI Consulting researchers have warned.
Higher royalties
Politicians at the world鈥檚 top copper-producing nation are also fine-tuning聽a new mining聽royalty bill,聽which will raise tariffs on firms based on gross sales and profitability.
鈥淲e estimate that, if the new taxes are approved, Chilean copper mining companies could see their tax rates increase to as much as 80% and profit margins drop by more than 50% at current copper prices,鈥� FTI said .
The analysts believe that Chile could become the nation with the highest tax burden on copper mining, forcing companies to revisit the viability of their current and future investments.
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Chile-focused Antofagasta (LON: ANTO), which has been very vocal about the negative effects higher royalties could have on Chile鈥檚 economy, said on Tuesday the new royalties won鈥檛 be as bad as anticipated.
It noted the Senate had already published a plan that was 鈥渓ess onerous than the original proposal made by the lower house.鈥� It also said there were still 鈥渟everal further legislative steps鈥� required before a final bill could be approved.
The same goes for the new constitution, which Chileans will decide whether to approve in the second half of the year.
(With files with Bloomberg, Reuters)