Industry warns sovereign risk in Australia is rising

BHP (ASX: BHP) has long been opposed to the Australian government鈥檚 Same Job, Same Pay industrial relations legislation, which the company said required听it to pay inexperienced labor hire workers the same as a worker with 听decades of experience, impacting costs and productivity.听
In its 2024 financial year results released Tuesday, BHP said 鈥渞egulatory 听changes underway in Australia will add to our labor costs and reduce the 听international competitiveness of the Australian economy鈥.听
Speaking to reporters following the release, BHP CEO Mike Henry said it 听was too early to quantify the cost to the business.听
鈥淲e’ve always been strong advocates for tying wage increases to 听productivity increases, and of course, we’re supportive of that,鈥 he said.听
鈥淥ur concerns around some of the recent changes are that they flow 听straight through the cost with no commensurate positive impact on 听productivity 鈥 in fact, they can pull things in the other direction.鈥澨
The new legislation has driven attempts to re-unionize Western Australia鈥檚听large mining workforce, which, if successful, Henry warned could impact 听potential future expansions in iron ore.听
Industry already reeling听
Last week, a decision by Australian environment minister Tania Plibersek 听to veto the tailings dam for Regis Resources鈥 (ASX: RRL) proposed A$1 听billion ($680 million) McPhillamys gold development in New South 听Wales made the project unviable. The company took a $130 million hit. 听
The project, which sits on freehold farmland, had received state approval 听from NSW鈥檚 Independent Planning Commission (IPC) and federal approval under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act 1999 in March 2023.听
One of the only outstanding approvals for the project was the Section 10 听application under the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act 1984, which Regis had been progressing for the past four 听years.听
The Orange Local Aboriginal Land Council (OLALC), the key local 听Aboriginal representative group, made a submission during the IPC 听process that any risks to cultural heritage could be mitigated.听
鈥淩egis had every confidence that from a regulatory point of view, 听McPhillamys was an approved project with no significant showstoppers 听from a government perspective,鈥 Regis managing director Jim Beyer told analysts and media.听
鈥淪o Minister Plibersek鈥檚 declaration was a huge shock to us, and not a 听decision that we felt was in keeping with past precedent, particularly 听given the already extensive investigation into Aboriginal cultural heritage 听issues.鈥澨
The declaration was also condemned by industry groups.
Hot topic听
The decision sent shockwaves through the Australian mining industry and 听has made headlines in mainstream press for more than a week.听
Australian reporting season is in full swing and the issue has repeatedly 听been raised, including with BHP Tuesday.听
鈥淲hen companies like BHP and any large business make decisions, you’re 听looking for the best risk returns and profile, and uncertainty generally 听means more risk, and so any uncertainty in permitting or other policies 听will become a drag on investment,鈥 Henry said.听
鈥淪pecifically in respect of that decision, I would say BHP has been strong supporters of policies related to cultural heritage protection, and that certainly is something that we take very seriously as a business, but on 听the broader point, the investment community does need as much 听certainty as possible, because that will ultimately improve investment attractiveness for Australia, alongside competitiveness.鈥澨
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) managing director Stuart Tonkin said Australia had a strong track record of being a stable place to invest.听
鈥淓very slow change like this just takes away some of that shine, and the light of capital has choice, so if Australia is not sitting up there as a great jurisdiction to invest in, the capital goes to different countries,鈥 he said on a conference call last week.听
鈥淚t comes back to the Fraser Institute index. Australia has a very high ranking. It is important to try to understand why that is and how we preserve that to attract investment.鈥澨
Even companies with development projects outside of Australia, like Patriot Battery Metals, are heeding concerns from investors.听
While speaking to investors in Australia last week following the release of the preliminary economic assessment for its Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium project in Quebec, the company was asked if a similar thing could happen in Canada.听
While CEO Ken Brinsden said he was confident that it couldn鈥檛 occur, he 听was amazed the issue had repeatedly come up.听
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to believe we鈥檙e having this conversation in Australia,鈥 he said.
Industry braces for green reforms
The Australian mining sector has already warned about possible negative implications of federal environmental law reforms.听
The 鈥楴ature Positive鈥 reforms include the establishment of a national 听environmental protection agency (EPA), which would be in addition to the existing EPAs in each state and territory.听
Legislation was introduced into federal Parliament in May, with the government promising the EPA would be a 鈥渢ough cop on the beat鈥 with the ability to issue 鈥榮top-work鈥 orders to prevent serious environmental 听damage and proactively audit businesses.听
Industry groups have warned the move would lead to duplication of 听regulation, adding to the cost and timeline of getting new projects approved.听
鈥淭he environmental policy is just an absolute joke in Australia,鈥 Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable told a conference in May.听
鈥淚’m failing to see what a national EPA is going to add in terms of making sure that we get a better environmental outcome when we’ve got state EPAs out there.鈥澨
Whitehaven Coal managing director Paul Flynn was quoted by The Australian last week as saying the changes were 鈥渇ront of mind鈥 for the company.听
He described the Regis decision as just one of 鈥渁 whole range of policy issues which are causing concerns for the industry鈥.听
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